Option A

Today's editorial in Ultimas Noticias, a psuedo-unbiased local newspaper, summed it all up: the Opposition to Chavez is likely planning a pullout as their first option in the upcoming Presidential elections. Lets call it option A.

This is terrible news for the opposition, Chavez, and ultimately the Venezuelan people. The editorial opined that the Opposition, as represented by an NGO called Sumate, is monkeying around with the idea of selecting a single candidate to oppose Chavez as a subliminal smokescreen while they devote their real efforts to discrediting the Electoral process put in place by CNE, the national elections board.

As you may already know, the opposition- under the direction of Sumate- orchestrated exactly such a pullout 5 days before the most recent congressional elections, delivering most congressional seats to Chavez. Along with the seats, they continue to give Chavez something - a huge headache. You see, if the opposition decides not to participate, that automatically delegitimizes the Chavez regime on the world stage. It strikes me as strange that Chavez's own taking heads don't seem to care much about this yet, given their specific attempts to win foreign "hearts and minds" with foreign policy. However, to them this may just be domestic politics, and here in Venezuela domestic politics is a "cold war" at best.

To explain: Sumate is a private Opposition-run NGO funded in part by the NED, aka your tax dollars. They are not officially recognized by the government as an election agency, and likewise they do not recognize the CNE as an official agency. The Opposition publicly states that Congress is illegitimate and Chavez is corrupt. Its questionable whether the Opposition respects the legitimacy of the Supreme Court. It is also questionable whether the opposition represents the will of the people, or rather a handful of powerful media, ex-government, and business interests- as well as the US government.

When the Opposition pulled off a 2-day coup in 2002 here in Venezuela with the tacit (or not-so-tacit) support of Washington, it set politics here forever into the abyss and showed the Opposition's hand. It also showed the Venezuelan people to which side of this battle the U.S. was going to throw its gorilla-like weight. There are cynical people who still think the U.S. had no hand in these events, but its hard to explain how a non-official NGO leader from Sumate met privately with President Bush, while the government of this country never has. (photo stolen from whitehouse.gov)

Why doesn't the CNE, as representing Chavez, allow the concessions to the voting process that Sumate and other Opposition heads have demanded? Why doesn't Sumate recognize Government entities, renounce US funds, and move on with the next electoral process in hopes of a clean electoral victory?

The actions of both side of this cold war make little rational sense without examining the actors, personalities, and history of this conflict. That may be the reason why many of those who lived here, through the last few years of strife, are quick to predict the pullout in upcoming elections. For the rest of us, only time will tell . . .

Comments

[David David]

Great blog, [dude]. I'm also interested in hearing about what you're doing at work too...types of cases? what are you doing on them? ps. i found a 'zine with an issue about karaoke at Chi Com, so i picked it up for you.

[modofac]

I agree that a pullout is not in Chavez's interests. But a pullout is also not in democracy's interests from the perspective of a responsible opposition. It would be interesting to know how deep the divide and on what issues between the opposition and Chavez regarding the electoral procedures. Is the opposition merely looking for an excuse for another effort to destabilize the regime through non-democratic means after the election?